"Baby Reg and Big Reg" (From Bruce Irvin's Instagram account: @bruceirvin51)
It's the most exciting time of the NFL again. The free agency period is upon us and the Raiders are looking to build from last year and become a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Welcome in to the annual Free Agency Outlook post. The layout of this post is going to be a lot different than years past. I'm making this more organized. I'm going to break down the Raiders' salary cap situation, who they should retain, and addressing the team needs that the Raiders need to fill.
Last year, Reggie McKenzie unloaded the Brinks truck and landed four enticing free agents. The acquisitions of Kelechi Osemele and Bruce Irvin were hands down the best additions from last year's free agent class. K.O. brought a mean, nasty presence to the offensive line. The Raiders' offensive line was arguably one of the best O-lines in the league next to the Dallas Cowboys. Bruce Irvin was probably the most surprising acquisitions because the Raiders weren't even considered to land Irvin. But, because Ken Norton Jr. was on the coaching staff, Bruce Irvin followed and added more pass rushing prowess to go alongside Khalil Mack. The additions of Sean Smith and Reggie Nelson were also big, but they didn't quite live up the hype. I thought Smith played much better as the season progressed, despite being hampered by a shoulder injury. Reggie Nelson, as much as he sealed a lot of games with clutch INTs, he was out of position and gave up a couple of big plays. Hopefully they're much better in Year 2 since the Raiders didn't give KNJ the boot and John Pagano's addition could have them play to their strengths. Nonetheless, the Raiders were big winners and these acquisitions finally got them over a 14 year hump of no postseason action.
Raiders' Salary Cap:
The numbers are in and the Raiders have
$48 million to spend for the 2017 free agency period. Pending in-house roster cuts, that number can increase. I think that kind of cap space is enough to land at least one or two key free agents. Of course, they have Derek Carr's contract extension looming and his contract extension could eat up half of that cap space. Also, Latavius Murray is a top-priority free agent to re-sign and he could be looking for more money. For Reggie McKenzie, this free agency period is going to be his biggest test since he drafted all this talent and now he has to play "keep as many as you can." At the same time, he has to address roster holes and pieces that could put the Raider in Super Bowl contention.
Must Re-Sign:
1) Latavius Murray
This is a no-brainer on who's a priority to re-sign. Tay Train didn't follow up from his 1,000+ yards rushing two seasons ago, but he found the end zone 12 times this season. He's not the prototypical elite running back that all run-first teams covet. His indecisiveness can sometimes be frustrating. But all the little things that Murray has done is what makes him underrated. He's a very capable pass catcher out of the backfield. He can pick up the blitz and pass protect. He has a nose for the end zone in goal line situations with his big, physical abilities. If Murray leaves, he's leaving behind a good situation. He won't find a team with as good of an O-line than he has currently with the Raiders. Well, unless he goes to the Dallas Cowboys given they have a great O-line, but he's going to play second fiddle to Ezekiel Elliott. If he's demanding a lot of money, it's going to hurt, but it's business and Reggie McKenzie will find a replacement in the free agent market or in the draft. I hear Adrian Peterson is calling, but question is, will he take a pay cut? Nonetheless, Murray needs to be re-signed and hopefully, his agent sets a reasonable and realistic price on him.
2) Menelik Watson
Menelik Watson had all the physical tools to be a solid offensive tackle. However, he just couldn't stop himself from getting hurt. I could understand the pro of letting him go because he couldn't stay healthy. The Raiders' Right Tackle position has been a revolving door all season long since Watson went down with yet another injury. Reggie McKenzie could do the same thing to Watson what he did to Darren McFadden in 2014. He could sign Watson to a 1-year bargain deal. The Raiders have to stock up depth at the Tackle position since Donald Penn is getting older, Austin Howard is serviceable at best, and Vadal Alexander isn't quite polished yet with his pass blocking. Re-signing Watson is a cheap deal to shore up depth at the Tackle position.
3) Jon Condo
I'm going to be honest, I didn't know Jon Condo was going to be an unrestricted free agent this year. Condo has been the Raiders' consistent Long Snapper since he was drafted. It would be nice if the Raiders retained their special teams trio consisting of Condo, Marquette King, and Sebastian Janikowski.
Team needs:
1) Interior Pass Rush
Mario Edwards Jr.'s hip injury last season proved to be devastating for the Raiders' interior pass rush in the middle. It's part of the big reason why they had one of the fewest sack totals in the league despite Mack and Irvin's presence off the edge. Quarterbacks can easily step into the pocket and throw because the DTs couldn't provide the push up the middle to create pressure. Jihad Ward was thrown into the fire to try and alleviate MEJ's absence, but it proved to be a daunting task for the Illinois rookie. As a result, the Raiders' set a lot of records for giving up a lot of yards. The health of MEJ is going to be a concern going forward. Calais Campbell of the Arizona Cardinals has been associated with the Raiders and I think he's going to be a tremendous addition for the defense. Reggie McKenzie and Jack Del Rio love versatile linemen and the Raiders are likely shifting to a 3-4 defense with the addition of John Pagano. This move makes a lot of sense. Campbell's addition could take pressure off of MEJ and Ward. Two hurdles though: 1) Campbell is in his 30's and 2) he's likely looking for a big payday. Still, just imagine the sight of a possible NASCAR formation with Khalil Mack, Calais Campbell, Mario Edwards Jr., Aldon Smith, and Bruce Irvin rushing at QBs.
2) Inside Linebacker
From Nick Roach to Curtis Lofton to Ben Heeney to Cory James to Perry Riley Jr., the Raiders can't afford to play musical chairs at the ILB position anymore. They need someone who could be that every down linebacker to "quarterback" the defense, play the run, and cover. Zach Brown of the Buffalo Bills is the ideal free agent that the Raiders should pursue to fill that position, especially since they're likely to run more 3-4 defensive schemes. Brown had a Pro Bowl breakout year last year, playing under Rex Ryan's 3-4 defense for the Bills. He'll likely demand a lot of money, but if he doesn't, the more the merrier. The plus side of getting Zach Brown is that because the Raiders play the AFC East next season, they could benefit from his familiarity playing in that division.
3) Offensive Tackle
The Raiders can never have too many bodies on the offensive line. If you looked at the past three seasons since Reggie McKenzie cleaned up the salary cap situation, the first thing he would address is the offensive line. He missed big time with Roger Saffold, but he hit the last two seasons with Rodney Hudson and Kelechi Osemele. Donald Penn is getting older, but I think K.O. will eventually take over the Left Tackle spot. However, Right Tackle was a mess last season. As mentioned, Menelik Watson couldn't stay healthy. Austin Howard is serviceable at best. Vadal Alexander and Denver Kirkland are not polished yet to start at the position. The Raiders could try and pry another O-lineman away from Baltimore by adding Ricky Wagner. Pro Football Focus ranks Wagner as the
36th best free agent in the market heading into the 2017 offseason. He's an OK run blocker, but pass protection is where he excels at and that was something the Raiders lacked on the right side. Defensive Coordinators knew that the right side was weak, so they put their premier pass rushers to Austin Howard's side.
4) Run Stuffing DT
The Raiders' run defense shockingly regressed last season, dipping down to the 23rd ranked run defense in the league. Dan Williams had weight issues to start the season and that negatively affected his play as a run-stuffing DT. Dontari Poe of the Chiefs and Brandon Williams of the Ravens are sexier pick up to fill this gap. However, Bennie Logan of the Philadelphia Eagles can be a smart, under-the-radar option to fill this gap. Bennie Logan was ranked as one of league's best run defenders among 4-3 DTs and 3-4 NTs according to
Pro Football Focus. The guy is explosive when it comes to shooting the gaps and tackling a running back for a loss. The one knack is that he's not as good of a pass rusher in a 3-4 compared to a 4-3, but he's a solid, younger upgrade over Dan Williams in terms of stopping the run and providing some push up the middle. Plus side, the Raiders play the NFC East next season, so they could definitely use Logan's familiarity in playing in that division.
5) Safety
The Raiders don't have much safety help outside of Karl Joseph and Reggie Nelson. Nate Allen is likely going to walk to another team. Brynden Trawick had a small sample size during the Week 17 game @ Denver in which he played really good. Trawick would be a smart re-sign for special teams purposes and for safety depth. But, Tony Jefferson of the Cardinals is now an unrestricted free agent this offseason. The Raiders had Jefferson on the radar last season, but he was a restricted free agent and the Cardinals would've matched whatever offer the Raiders came up with. The Raiders can chase after him without any restrictions. Jefferson can be a long-term replacement when Reggie Nelson's contract is up. "J&J Security" has a nice ring to a possible tandem of Karl Joseph and Tony Jefferson for the last line of defense.
Conclusion
Obviously, not all of these team needs will be address immediately in the free agency period. These are all ideal free agents to address team needs for the Raiders. With the cap space, I think the Raiders can land at least one big time free agent and re-sign Murray while being mindful of Derek Carr's impending extension. The Raiders will likely focus on in-house and once they sign a big free agent, they'll start doing some sneaky solid signings, kinda like 2015. Rodney Hudson was the big time addition and they followed with smart, bargain signings with Malcolm Smith, Lee Smith, Roy Helu, Dan Williams, Curtis Lofton, and Michael Crabtree. What they should focus most importantly is which free agent will take them to become legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The big thing is that the Raiders don't have to beg for free agents to come anymore. The free agents have to beg for them to come to the Silver and Black. It should be an interesting free agency period. As usual, I'll provide a post that'll record all of the Raiders' transactions and provide separate posts for the big splashes. I'll see you guys on March 9 when the new NFL year starts.
