Tuesday, January 16, 2018

A Season in Review: 2017 Raiders + Chucky's Back!

Alright Raider Nation, welcome to the long-awaited "Season in Review" post for the 2017 Oakland Raiders. No further description needed, I reflect on the season and offer my free agency/draft approach. And on a bonus, it is now in the books: Jon Gruden is back in black as of Tuesday. The Raiders hire him to be the head coach after they kicked Jack Del Rio to the curb following the uninspiring loss to the Chargers at the end of the season. I'll offer my thoughts on the return of Chucky.

Last year, Jack Del Rio offered this speech after the Raiders' gritty win against the Saints: "last year, we learned how to compete. This year, we know how to win!" Let's revise that phrase to summarize this underwhelming season. The previous year, the Raiders learned how to compete. Last year, they know how to win. This year, they know how to take two steps back and revert back to the Raider teams of the past. Because that's what the season was in a nutshell. The Raiders got off to a good start at 2-0, first time since 2002, with convincing wins against the Titans and the Jets. And then it all fell apart in Washington by Week 3. What once was a Super Bowl-aspiration season turned out to be a nightmare with total implosion within the team. From rumored tensions in the locker room. To the anemic offense called by Todd Downing. To Derek Carr's back injury. To the defense continually regressing under Ken Norton Jr. before Jack Del Rio decided it was time for a change when it was too little too late. This year made the 12-4 dream season of last year an afterthought. And it was back to the same old Raiders from 2003-2014 where the team was inconsistent and undisciplined on all facets of the game. It's astonishing that despite the Raiders' poor play, they were still in the playoff hunt until Week 16. Let's be honest, the AFC West was a complete joke this season. The Raiders were lucky to be in the playoff hunt for that long despite some ugly losses and close losses. Remember, last season, the Raiders had a lot of close games that luckily went in their favor. This year, the close games didn't go in their favor so much. It shows that they can't always have the comeback magic.

So, what constituted the Raiders' regression from 12-4 to 6-10? It started with the play of the offense this season. We had high hopes for this unit to be a juggernaut. They had the 2nd best O-line next to the Cowboys. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are standout wide receivers. Derek Carr was MVP-material prior to the fibula injury last year. They added Jared Cook, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Marshawn Lynch. This was a top-5 offense on paper. There's only one problem: the Raiders got rid of Bill Musgrave who made this offense into a top-5 unit last year and promoted Todd Downing, who's never called a play or game planned in his coaching career. In my season preview, I thought Downing would be a better OC than Musgrave. Since that, I've been eating crow. The biggest thing that boggled my mind was that he was so good at the beginning of the season. Going up against the likes of Dick LeBeau and Todd Bowles, proven DCs who are known to confuse offenses with different looks and blitz packages, Downing outcoached them both from an X's and O's standpoint. Then, the Redskins game happened and his offense was exposed big time to the point of predictability by season's end. Granted, with Carr's back injury in Week 4, Downing had to dial down the playbook a bit. But, he couldn't expand the short passing game nor get creative if he's calling a bubble screen. And most of all, he kept running Lynch in single back formation. All the defenses know that he was gonna get the ball. It also explains why Jamize Olawale barely saw the field this season because Downing barely used the I Formation, which is the base of a power run play. Look at the tape in Seattle, Lynch was more effective when he had a fullback like Michael Robinson and later Derrick Coleman leading the way, blocking for him. Why we didn't see Olawale and Lynch in the same backfield was beyond me.

The only positive to take away from this season was when Jack Del Rio finally fired Ken Norton Jr. after the Patriots blasted them in Week 11 and transferred the playcalling duties on defense to John Pagano. When Pagano was added to the coaching staff, we all knew he was the backup plan if Norton continued to mess up. When the Raiders made the switch from KNJ to Pagano, you saw the difference in the defense. They gave up less points. The defense communicated as a unit and understood their assignments. The D-line generated pressure. Mack and Irvin moved around to get to the QB. Sean Smith went from burnt toast to shutdown corner down the stretch. They used a modicum of exotic blitzes. The biggest thing that separated Pagano from KNJ was that Pagano evaluated his personnel and simplified a scheme that played to the strengths of the players. That's how you separate a proven DC to a parody of a DC who's in over his head.

The Jack Del Rio era was short lived. But, let's not discredit how much he changed the culture here in Oakland. He improved a 3-13 Raiders team to a 7-9 team in his first year and took them to a 12-4 season his second year. Unfortunately, bone-headed coaching decisions and failing to take command of a tense locker room and instill some discipline lead to his demise. I'm still dumbfounded that the Raiders gave him a 4-year extension and proceeded to fire him after that. It's a waste of money and they'll still pay Del Rio regardless. He was a good coach, but not a great coach and the Raiders need a great coach to take them to that next step. Which brings us to the big headline: the return of Jon Gruden, aka "Chucky." Growing up a Raider fan during the days of Gannon, Brown, Rice, and Woodson, I never understood the impact that Gruden had turning the Raiders into contenders during early 2000s. It wasn't until I got older and started diving into the history of the Raiders where I got to know Gruden better through the stories of older Raider fans and old clips. The guy has a passion for football. He is really animated and a no non-sense type of coach. I've heard stories on how he'll pull out players when they make a boneheaded penalty or mistake and he's not afraid to chew out the refs as he damn near pleases on the sidelines. That's how he lived up to the "Chucky" persona. Raider Nation is bitter that Al Davis traded him during the 2002 off season and they're even more bitter about Super Bowl XXXVII. I still remember that game and it was the worst feeling in the world.

Gruden returning to the Raiders, it's like a forgive and forget type of hire. The circle is complete. There is a big concern: it's been 10 years since he last coach, 14 years since he last coached the Raiders. And since, the game has drastically changed. Remember, the Raiders hired Art Shell for a 2nd stint and that was a disaster considering that he used outdated schemes that didn't adjust to the modern game at that time. No disrespect to Shell's legendary status as a Raider, but it didn't seem like he was aware on how much the game changed back then since he last coached. Gaining from Gruden's conference on Tuesday, he's aware about the game's evolution and as an analyst, he's observed all 32 NFL teams. He studied film. But it's gonna take time for Chucky to re-adjust to the game. It's a lot different in coaching the sidelines than observing teams as an analyst. Not to mention, the 10-year, $100 million contract Mark Davis offered to Gruden is absolutely ridiculous for a guy who hasn't coached in over a decade. But with Chucky back on the sidelines, fun and games are over and this Raiders squad full of young talent is gonna be in for a wild ride in offseason activities, in training camp, in practice sessions, and in the games. On the plus side, he's assembling a good coaching staff on paper. Rich Bissacia as the Special Teams coordinator from the Cowboys, Paul Guenther as the DC from the Bengals, Edgar Bennett, who was the OC of the Packers, is coming in as the new Wide Receivers coach. He's also holding a reunion of some past Raider coaches and assistants: Greg "run up the middle" Olson and Tom "just cut it loose" Cable are back. Luckily, Olson is just an OC in name only since Gruden will be calling the shots on offense. Cable is gonna coach the O-line as he did previously with the Silver and Black during the awful Lane Kiffin days. Jokingly speaking, they just need someone from the Norv Turner era to come back. That's all that's missing on this coaching staff that Chucky is assembling.

The impending offseason is gonna be a big one for the Raiders. Of course Khalil Mack's contract extension is hovering around. Reggie McKenzie and the Raiders make sure they get him locked up before he becomes a free agent in 2019. With Carr's $120 million extension and Gabe Jackson's $65 million extension, Mack no question is going to be offered big time money. They're going to have to cut some people to free up some cap space. David Amerson, with all the injury concerns, he's likely a cap casualty. Sean Smith, he's played better under Pagano, but he's likely gonna be let go to free up some cap space. Crabtree is also trending in terms of who the Raiders are going to release. Locking up NaVorro Bowman to a long-term deal is also a must. Bowman came in by Week 7 and fixed the Raiders' revolving door at the Middle Linebacker position. He made the entire linebacker unit better. Young guys like Nicolas Morrow and Marquel Lee benefited from Bowman's presence in the middle of the field. T.J. Carrie is also a must re-sign, even though he's as high on the list as Bowman is. The secondary was a complete mess, but Carrie outside Karl Joseph was a bright spot. He played exceptional as a cornerback, playing both outside and in the slot. In terms of players likely walking, Reggie Nelson is likely gone. They'll probably let Justin Ellis walk since they can find a suitable replacement in the draft for a run stuffing DT.  If they choose not to bring back Bowman because obviously Mack's extension is higher priority, they could draft Roquan Smith from Georgia. Gruden may be an offensive mind, but he's no stranger in having a hand in drafting defense. The Raiders drafted Charles Woodson in Gurden's first year. We know the Raiders will draft 10th overall, but because they finished with an identical record with the 49ers, it could down to a coin flip on who gets that position.

Overall, this season wasn't as we expected it to be. But, the talent on this roster is there to make a series of playoff runs. It's just that coaching failed them in the long run because they didn't know how to use them or how to keep a couple of egos in check. That won't happen as long as Chucky is roaming the sidelines. The return to greatness does not happen without a few bumps on the road. Carr and the offense should bounce back next season. The defense, with a couple of moves, should play a lot better with a proven DC at the helm this time around. Del Rio, you were awesome in bringing back the swagger of the Raiders. But sorry Jack, Chucky's back! Here's to a bounce back season in 2018!

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