Saturday, January 22, 2022

A Post-Mortem of the 2021-22 Raiders

Well, I'll be dammed. 

This season of the Las Vegas Raiders will definitely go down as one for the books. In the midst of the longest NFL season marked by controversy, tragedy, and adversity, the Raiders found a way to "just win baby". Be it through mental fortitude or through superstition such a flip of a coin, they finished their 2021 season at 10-7 and made the playoffs only to lose in the Wild Card to the Cincinnati Bengals.

So, how did the Raiders make it this far? Honestly, there was not much expectation for this team heading to this season other than the fact that it's just a matter we see improvement with this team. But two impressive wins to start against the Baltimore Ravens in OT and Pittsburgh Steelers initially changed our perception of this team. The revamped defense under Gus Bradley looked legit. Derek Carr was playing at an MVP-level, something we haven't seen since 2016 in spite of a suspect O-line. And it seemed that coach Jon Gruden was finally righting the ship. 

With another win OT against the Dolphins and a loss against the Chargers on a Monday Night game, the Raiders were riding strong with a 3-1 start. Then after that, the drama descends. Jon Gruden was in hot water after the NFL probed an investigation over leaked emails from the Washington Football Team organization where Gruden wrote some homophobic and racial slurs in his emails. With the distractions surrounding that controversy and an uneasy loss to the Chicago Bears after, Gruden resigned as head coach. Assistant Head Coach and Special Teams Coordinator, Rich Bisaccia took over.

Following the coaching change, the Raiders notched some dominant wins over the Broncos at Denver and against the Eagles at home. It seemed like Gruden was the one that was holding this team back. The offensive execution looked a lot better specifically. They were taking care of teams they expected to beat. And the Raiders head into the bye with a 5-1 record.

Then the Henry Ruggs accident happened. A dumb decision to drive under the influence changed the lives of many. Not only did Ruggs kill his short NFL career, but he killed something far more precious than that. 

He took the life of an innocent woman and her dog as their car set ablaze, burning them alive. 

As much of a void Ruggs left behind, the Raiders did the right thing in releasing him in the wake of this senseless tragedy. Not only is he facing a DUI charge, but he's also facing vehicular manslaughter charges. It's safe to say he will be facing significant time in prison in the near future. 

A short couple days after that, the Raiders faced more problems with their other 2020 first round pick. Damon Arnette took to social media to confront an Internet troll and threatened to kill him while pointing a gun at the camera. He also got released on the basis of this immature and highly-sensitive action. I mean, there was a reason why he had many red flags when he was drafted. It didn't matter much because of the fact that he put half-assed effort onto the field as the projected #1 Cornerback.

With the Raiders 2020 draft class all but gone (sans Bryan Edwards), the void was felt in the Raiders' 3-game skid after the bye. An ugly loss to the Giants and Bengals and especially an embarrassing national TV loss to the Chiefs turned over public opinion over the Raiders. They went from being contenders to pretenders in a matter of weeks. And talks of a rebuild was certainly in play.

Until an internet sensation known as "the coin" gave Raider Nation some hope. A fan predicted the Raiders' record before the season with the flip of a coin that has them finishing 10-7, making the playoffs as a 7th seed. Wins against the Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins, Broncos, and Eagles and losses against the Chargers, Bears, Giants, Chiefs, and Bengals were all correctly predicted. The coin's next predictions? Wins against the Cowboys, Football Team, Browns, Broncos, and Colts and losses against the Chiefs and the Chargers. 

With a resounding win against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, almost everybody bought in to "the coin". There was still some skepticism knowing the unfortunate luck the Raiders had in years past. With a loss to the Football Team, "the coin" became a sham. But it could still be right about the Raiders' record. The team expectedly lost to the Chiefs because Arrowhead Stadium in December is typically a sign of impending doom for the Silver and Black. But the Raiders ran the table and notched very close wins against the Browns, Broncos, Colts, and a Sunday Night thriller against the Chargers in the season finale to get into the playoffs. "The coin" still correctly predicted the Raiders' record, just not some of the games and neither their playoff seeding.

Now, we get to the Wild Card round against a young Bengals team and a franchise starving for its first playoff win in 30+ years and honestly, the Raiders couldn't have asked for a better scenario. A matchup with the Bengals gave them a chance to be competitive rather than say another shellacking against the far more talented and experienced Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Whatever the outcome was for the game, you just had to live with it. And yes, there were some moments in that game that honestly frustrated me as a Raider fan. We can list a lot from Peyton Barber's bonehead decision to field the kickoff at the Raiders' own 2 when the kick was going out of bounds. The whistle after Joe Burrow stepped out of bounds and a Bengals TD was still upheld. The pass defense's inability to stop the Joe Burrow-Ja'marr Chase LSU connection. And of course, the penalties and the red zone deficiencies that reared its ugly head yet again. You name it. Even if Cincy's playoff drought ended in spite of the Raiders, this is an outcome that we can live with. Better this than getting whooped against far better teams in cold-weather Buffalo or Kansas City.

If you'd ask me, this season reminded of the 2016 season with elements of the 2011 season. The 2016 side, the Raiders were pulling off these come from behind wins and giving us fans major heart attacks in every game. The 2011 season side if you remember, Al Davis passed away, leaving a temporary shift in power with Hue Jackson as acting GM midseason, Jason Campbell gets hurt, they give up the farm for Carson Palmer, and Rolando McClain gets arrested during the bye week. This year, roughly the same circumstances: a midseason shift in power in the wake of a controversy, a first round pick gets arrested for a stupid decision, another first round pick gets released for a stupid decision, all the injuries and COVID issues, and the death of a key figure in Raider history (John Madden). As low of expectations that we had for this team coming into this season, you have to tip their cap for all the adversity and all the BS they had to overcome throughout the year. Now granted, this team is a major benefactor of the NFL's new playoff seeding and the new 17-week regular season. But, this doesn't take away from the fact that they did well in running the table down the stretch. 

That was the positive side. With this season over, I feel that there's more questions than answers surrounding this team. Despite the grit the team possessed in pulling together against all odds, it wasn't enough to retain some key people within the organization. Particularly, Mike Mayock is not coming back as the Raiders' GM as it was reported on Monday. One of the main questions is whether or not this playoff season was enough to save Mayock's job? A lot of people questioned his draft selections. Some say he's to blame. Others say it was Gruden. At the end of the day, the GM makes the final call. The coach will have his input, but the GM makes the final decision. Given that after this season, the 2020 draft class of the Raiders will go down as one of the worst in franchise history. So, that gives some merit into Mayock's termination.

Mark Davis is going to have a long laundry list to address. Who'll be the next GM? Who'll be the next Head Coach? And do you want to extend Derek Carr's contract? The GM thing, we know that they'll be searching for one. The Head Coach, the choices are obvious: you either give Rich Bisaccia a shot or take a big leap of faith at a hot coaching candidate. With Bisaccia, the players like him and played hard for him to finish out the year. There's some leadership skills that are untapped that could be unlocked with a full season. But, if there's someone in the market that's better, the Raiders should go for that option. I would say the only thing that needs to overhauled in the current coaching staff is the Offensive personnel. I don't want to see Greg "up the middle" Olson coordinating the offense of this team ever again. With the playcalling, the offense was predictable and vanilla. We need somebody who can be innovative and design offensive schemes that provide a robust balance of the run and the pass and can actually improve this team's red zone offense. Too many times, we've seen this offense get off to good starts, but they couldn't finish off drives because of lackluster playcalling.

With that said, we get to the most polarizing topic of Raider Nation: Derek Carr. To extend or not to extend? He's better than what the Raiders have had at QB, right? His performance this season is still a mixed bag. He wasn't bad, but he wasn't good either. He drove the Raiders in position multiple times to win, that's fair. I'll give him credit. I've questioned his ability on whether he could be that franchise QB, the leader of men when the going gets tough. And in some instances, he showed those traits. With a suspect O-line and patchwork of receivers, he did what he could. But, while everybody can point to his near 5,000 yards passing this season, he's still streaky. We talked about the red zone deficiencies. He doesn't go through multiple reads and misses open receivers down field. He's still quick to the checkdowns. He barely uses his legs to extend plays. The stats may not show it, but the film does. 

If anything, the Carr supporters got one thing right: you give him a decent defense that keeps games close, he'll win you ball games. Now, if you give him an improved O-line and a number 1 receiver that can take pressure off Waller and Renfrow, can he mitigate those bad habits that have hampered him in all the years he's been in the league? And this is not to say Carr is a bad QB because he's not. He's an okay QB at best. I don't think at this juncture of his career, he is a guy who can lead the Raiders to at least one Super Bowl. Barring an Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson arrival, it would make sense for the Raiders to hang onto Carr a bit longer. And wait until next year to draft a future QB because from what I heard, this year's rookie QB class is pretty underwhelming. At this point, Carr is the biggest piece the Raiders can leverage and it's in the hands of the new regime on what to do with him.

The Raiders finished with a winning record and a playoff berth, but at what cost? Depending on their personnel moves, it's gonna make or break this team as the top destination for free agents. Let's look at what the Raiders have now. They have a good pass-rushing duo in Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby. Mad Maxx just made the Pro Bowl this year after a down year last year. Darren Waller is a Top 5 Tight End when healthy. Josh Jacobs got off to a slow start with injuries, but the last few games showed that he still has talent and it'll be exciting to see what can happen with a healthy Jacobs and a healthy Kenyan Drake. Hunter Renfrow is a bone-a-fide Slot Receiver and much more. And they have some solid pieces on the defensive side from the 2021 draft in Tre'von Moehrig, Divine Deablo, and Nate Hobbs (if he can stay out of trouble). The jury is out there with their 1st round pick, Alex Leatherwood. Putting him in Right Tackle early was a bad idea. Luckily, the Raiders corrected that when they put him inside at Right Guard, but still more work needs to be done with their 2021 1st round pick. 

The Raiders have some pieces. But obviously, they're gonna need more to get over and be a serious playoff contender for years to come. We watched, we saw, and we heard up close about the environment in Las Vegas. The funny thing is, Raider Nation has complained about fans being too noisy in Allegiant Stadium when the offense is on the field or when the opposition scores / makes a big play. The ones that initially opposed this relocation (myself included) saw this coming a mile away. The biggest con in Vegas is that there is no true homefield advantage. Opposing fanbases will travel because the city is a notorious tourist hub. If the Raiders want to maintain the stronghold in their new digs, they have to do what the Golden Knights of the NHL did, they have to be a well-oiled machine in winning games and make the playoffs year in and year out. Becauseif they ever hit that rock bottom of perennial mediocrity again, Las Vegas people will stop caring and the opposition will be taking over. Luckily, they played in front of an empty crowd last year. 

It'll be interesting to see what kind of decisions Mark Davis makes this offseason. He has no more football advisors to rely on other than his own intuition. Al Davis is gone. John Madden is gone. It's time for Mark to step up to the plate. This is his team. This is his franchise.  This is his organization. The greatness of the Raiders is in its future, is it not?