Alright Raider Nation, welcome in to the 2020 preview for the upcoming Las Vegas Raiders regular season campaign. The Raiders kick off their inaugural season in Sin City in their brand new Allegiant Stadium. It's going to be an interesting season obviously with the COVID-19 pandemic going on. Several NFL players elected not to play this season while teams will play in their stadium at little to no capacity. I'll address that a little later. But, let's get off to the nitty gritty storylines, schedule breakdown, and my prediction on where the Raiders will finish.
Youth Movement
When Jon Gruden came back to the Raiders in 2018, we didn't expect him to deconstruct the current roster and start the rebuild process all over again. He traded superstar studs in Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper to build some draft capital for 2019. The following year, in comes Mike Mayock, the "draft guru" as the new GM. With the combined football minds of Gruden and Mayock, they nailed the Raiders' best draft class since 2014, drafting Clelin Ferrell at #4 and using the Mack and Amari picks to draft Josh Jacobs and Johnathan Abram respectively to complete their trio of first round talents. In addition, they selected some late-round bloomers by way of Trayvon Mullen, Maxx Crosby, and Hunter Renfrow.
The 2019 draft class lead in every statistical category that Pro Football Focus can throw out. Despite the underwhelming performance from Clelin Ferrell as a top pick and the early injury to Johnathan Abram, the Raiders' 2019 picks still stood out. Josh Jacobs became the first 1,000+ yard rusher since Latavius Murray in 2015 and the first Raider rookie to do so in such a long time. Maxx Crosby had an underrated season as a pass rusher with 10 sacks. Trayvon Mullen flashed potential as a number 1 corner. And Hunter Renfrow proved to be a reliable target in the slot for Derek Carr. With the success of the 2019 draft, the Raiders would hope for an encore with the 2020 class headlined by Henry Ruggs III, Damon Arnette, Tanner Muse, and Bryan Edwards.
"Youth Movement" seems like an appropriate title for this headline because the Raiders are going all in for these young pieces they have acquired through the draft. With a couple of injuries and roster cuts, they are thrusted immediately into the Vegas spotlight. We expect Josh Jacobs to build off of a stellar rookie season in rushing and receiving. Especially with the weapons the Raiders have now: a speedster and deep threat in Ruggs and a potential get up and grab it receiver in Edwards to pair with Hunter Renfrow in the slot, a blossoming All-Pro Tight End in Darren Waller and a solid O-line when healthy, the sky is the limit for Jacobs to run wild on opposing defenses. On the receiving core, with Tyrell Williams going on IR, all eyes will be on the trio of Ruggs, Edwards, and Renfrow. Ruggs and Renfrow are already penciled in as starters. Edwards has been given the green light to start ahead of veterans like Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones, who've made the active roster.
On defense, there's a lot of youth on that side of the ball. By all accounts, we will be paying attention to Clelin Ferrell and see if he can take that next step to become an all-elite defender. As I mentioned before, Ferrell didn't jump out to me a lot last season and I didn't think a lot of offensive coordinators respected him in their gameplan against the Raiders' defense. Sure, he had some good highlights, but he's gonna have to prove that he's worthy of that #4 pick overall. Perhaps, the unit that I'm most skeptical about is the secondary. The Raiders cut Prince Amukamara and Demarious Randall, two veteran DBs who could've helped. At the same time, I read they weren't doing well at camp. Amukamara especially was "burnt toast" out there. What we know so far is Mullen has the #1 corner on lock. Abram is 100% healthy and will get that Free Safety position. Arnette reportedly earned the 2nd corner position, beating out Nevin Lawson. It's going to be interesting to see how Paul Guenther meshes this unit together, especially with no preseason games this year to see how they look in game speed.
Notable Free Agent Acquisitions
This offseason, the Raiders finally addressed the revolving linebacker position with the signings of Nick Kwiatkoski from Chicago and All-Pro, Cory Littleton from the LA Rams. If there was one thing that I was the most upset about during the Reggie McKenzie era, it was that the Raiders refused to upgrade the linebacker position, which hasn't been a strength in a long time. We were banking on so many project picks or past-their-prime veterans to get that unit right. But, I'm glad Mayock and Gruden addressed that and signed proven talent who'll start and bring immediate help to a unit that has been mediocre for some time now. I also liked the signing of Maliek Collins from the Dallas Cowboys. Defensive Tackle was also a unit that the previous regime refused to address. Now the current regime got a guy who can anchor that middle of the D-line and provide some push to free up Ferrell and Crosby coming off the edge. They also acquired Carl Nassib for additional pass rush and Jeff Heath for more depth in the secondary.
On offense, their most notable signings were Agholor and Marcus Mariota. Not too many impact signings on offense via free agency. But, Raiders were able to get Mariota for a bargain to act as a "super backup" to Derek Carr.
Derek Carr - No More Excuses
Talking about Derek Carr, it's like being in an estranged relationship with a spouse. By now, we know the pros and cons surrounding Carr since the freak injury back in 2016. This season is a make or break year and Carr has to prove it now that he's capable of being a franchise quarterback and worth the $100 million contract extension. He said it himself, he's "tired of the disrespect." Fact of the matter is that it's not disrespect. A lot of Carr's flaws are proven. This is what year 6? Year 7? And he still makes the same mistakes that he's done in years' past. To make matters worse, he's awful in cold weather games and he hasn't won a game in Arrowhead Stadium, which is why the Raiders-Chiefs rivalry has been lopsided in the past decade.
As I mentioned, when the Raiders get to Vegas, all the stars will align for Derek Carr's career. He's now playing in a domed stadium. That means less cold weather, especially when the season gets to late November-Early December. He has a running game. He has weapons now. His O-line is healthy. Simply put, there are no excuses for Carr to underperform this year. He can put up numbers, but can he give the team wins? That is the question. Have no fear though Carr fans. You have one more trump card in your book of excuses: "the COVID-19 pandemic didn't give Carr and his new receivers a lot of time to gel." I am calling it right now if he underperforms yet again.
Here's my message to Derek Carr: as a fellow Laker fan, you said you want to honor Kobe this upcoming season? You want to embrace the Mamba Mentality this year? Then, be the franchise QB you were meant to be and stop being a product of the talent that surrounds you! Work with what you have. Stop being gaudy with stats, numbers, and franchise records. Stop playing scared. Elevate and bring out the best of the unit you have currently on the field and just win!
No Fans in Attendance
With COVID-19 still ongoing, many NFL teams will elect to allow minimal or no fans in the stadiums this year. It depends a lot on their cities' jurisdiction and their policies for large gatherings at public events. And this year, the Raiders will start off their first season in Las Vegas...with no fans in attendance for home games. For Oakland fans, this is glorious karma to Mark Davis and the organization. We know Mark Davis was banking on Raider Nation to show up in full force. With the expensive PSLs and Hotel and Casino taxes, he thought he was going to get the "golden parachute." Looks like that will have to wait.
If you're aspiring to be an NFL owner and you have deep pockets, let this be a cautionary tale of moving from city to city. If your team gets league approval to relocate to another city, move there immediately! The Rams got approved to move back to LA, they relocated immediately and re-established their footing in that market while setting up a new stadium. The Chargers had one year to decide on their approval for relocation, they took it, moved out of San Diego and up to LA and established their footing in that market while the new stadium is being built.
The Raiders? They got approved to relocate to Vegas in 2017, but they stayed in Oakland for three lame duck seasons. The Raiders are in a real false start with this inaugural season in Vegas. They don't have that market fully established when they had three years to do so. This is like owning a professional sports team 101. If you committed your organization to a new city, you have to move there immediately to establish yourself in the market, build up the fanbase, and maintain a relationship with the community. Sure, we didn't expect COVID-19 to be this bad, but Mark Davis and the Raiders decided to play with fire and squeeze every penny out of Oakland with false narratives and pretenses that they were gonna win a Super Bowl before they leave. Reality is they should've moved upon approval when they had the chance.
To all aspiring NFL owners, don't do what Mark Davis did. Because if unforeseen circumstances like this pandemic happens and you took your sweet time to move to your new city, you might've just put your franchise in financial trouble early on. Mark Davis isn't exactly rich either. What's his net worth, $500 million? The organization paid a hefty relocation fee. They secured a loan from Bank of America to complete the funding to build Allegiant Stadium, which they'll need to pay back down the line. No fans in attendance and the NFL is expected to drop in revenue this year due to the pandemic. Yikes!
Schedule Breakdown
Looking at this schedule, I would say this is kind of middle-of-the-pack schedule. It's not difficult, but at the same time it's not easy. Raiders open up in Carolina. The Panthers are in the midst of a rebuild season under a new head coach. They open up Allegiant Stadium against the Saints, they're expected to contend in the NFC South like usual. They get the Post-Brady era Patriots in Week 3, the rising Bills in Week 4, and an early trip to Arrowhead in Week 5. Carr could very well get his first win at Arrowhead since Kansas City still has warm weather at that time. They get the bye Week 6. Following that, they have two home Sunday Night games in the five-week span: against Tom Brady and the Bucs in Week 7 and a rematch with Kansas City again in Week 11. The rest of the schedule pans out like this: vs. TB, @ CLE, @ LAC, vs. DEN, vs KC, @ ATL, @ NYJ, vs. IND, vs. LAC, vs. Miami, and @ Denver to finish out for the 2nd straight year. Looking back at our unproven secondary, they'll be facing a lot of elite receivers: Michael Thomas in Week 2, Tyreek Hill in Weeks 5 and 11, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 7, Julio Jones in Week 12. Honorable mentions would be Stefon Diggs, Week 4, T.Y. Hilton in Week 14, and maybe Jerry Jeudy in Weeks 10 and 17 if Drew Lock turns out to be the real deal for the Broncos. Like I said, it's a middle-of-the-pack schedule for the Raiders. But without question, a lot of teams will be eager to test the new-look defense and that secondary. The offense doesn't have a lot of elite defenses to worry about. But, they will still be tested, especially when there's no preseason to fine tune their chemistry and execution.
Conclusion
At best, I see this team at 9-7. At worst, 8-8. The Raiders have a lot of young pieces, but there will be a huge learning curve for these guys at the NFL level. Especially against the more experienced teams, they will be in for a rough outing. But if Carr, the veteran, can elevate them and Gruden can put these players in the best position to succeed, this team has the potential to exceed expectations. But, realistically, when you're in a division with the defending Super Bowl champions who have a $500 million elite quarterback, you can only get as far as you can. Interesting enough, the NFL has expanded the Wild Card teams to three so that only the #1 seed gets the bye week. So, the Raiders do have a chance at the Wild Card in their inaugural season. Personally, I don't see this team making the playoffs just yet. It's more about making strides, especially for the 2nd year players from the 2019 draft. The 2020 draft class will get their action, but they'll take more time to develop with no preseason to give them a taste of the NFL speed. I'll reiterate again, 9-7 at best, 8-8 at worst. I'll see you guys for Week 1.
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