Raiders 2017 Regular Season Preview - Super Bowl Contender-Worthy?

Raiders football is coming. Welcome, Raider Nation to the regular season preview post for the Raiders' 2017 campaign provided by yours' truly. As usual, I provide some storylines to look out for, the schedule breakdown, and give my overall thoughts on how the season will go.

2017 Raiders Offense - "The Greatest Show on Dirt"?

Unequivocally, this will be the strongest unit and the identity of this team. Last year, before Derek Carr got hurt, the offense proved that they can drive down the field and score regardless of what situation the Raiders were in, whether they leading or trailing. Most of the comeback wins last year, the offense orchestrated them, especially behind Derek Carr's arm. Before the injury, Carr was on pace for a 4,000+ yards passing and another 30+ passing TDs season. With the additions of Jared Cook, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Marshawn Lynch this offseason, this unit just got a lot stronger. The offense should easily be top 10 because they have 95% of the total package in making a very potent offense. What do the Raiders have currently before the additions? They have the 2nd best O-line in football. Donald Penn, Kelechi Osemele, and Rodney Hudson all the made the Pro Bowl. Gabe Jackson is seriously underrated and worth the $65 million contract extension he signed prior to training camp. They have two 1,000-yards receiving Wideouts in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree; the first tandem to accomplish a feat since Tim Brown and Jerry Rice. Now, the Raiders have a mismatch Tight End in Cook. Patterson is a deadly Kick Returner, but he has deep threat potential, which should benefit Cooper big time and allow him to be a movable "chess piece" and a matchup nightmare. And, they brought Beast Mode out of retirement. Despite the age concerns, Marshawn Lynch is an automatic upgrade over Latavius Murray. We saw in preseason that he could still find the holes and take on defenders after contact. Speaking of preseason, the first string offense has shown that they can drive down the field and be a scoring threat at will. Derek Carr looked like he hasn't missed a beat and even though it's preseason, Todd Downing is already a better play-caller than Bill Musgrave. Why? Because Downing is better utilizing the Tight Ends. I don't know if Musgrave had a grudge against Tight Ends. On every passing down, it is 3-Wide, pass to either Coop, Crab, or Seth and if they're covered well check down to Murray or Olawale. That's what made the offense semi-predictable. But, with the personnel they have now combined with Downing's ability to shake things up in the playbook and Carr having free reins to change plays, this offense should keep opposing defenses on its heels and keep them guessing. I liked the offense based on what I saw from the first string offense this preseason. This unit should have no problem obliterating opposing defenses.

Norton's Last Chance

The performance of the Raider defense since Ken Norton, Jr. was hired back in the 2015 offseason has been met with mixed to negative reception. In 2015, KNJ got a pass, given it was his first season calling plays and the defense stepped up down the stretch. Last year, the defense was supposed to be top notch with the additions of Bruce Irvin, Sean Smith, and Reggie Nelson. We were wrong. This defense got worse than expected, surrendering record-breaking yards and points last season. The only redeeming qualities they had was that they were 2nd in takeaways last season and Khalil Mack won Defensive Player of the Year. After last season's underwhelming performance by the defense, we expected Ken Norton, Jr. to be fired. There's a lot of evidence stacked against him: he's too overcommitted to replicate the Seahawks defense (Raiders do not have a fast, powerful D-Line, linebackers with insane close out speed, nor the Legion of Boom). He's forcing the Raider corners who are more suited to man to play zone. He's putting players in the wrong position (you're asking for a death wish if you put Sean Smith up against Brandin Cooks with no Safety help). He's not moving Mack around like a chess piece to exploit mismatches at the LOS. He does not blitz. And the one that really grinds our gears, his playcalling on 3rd and long situations do not account for the Tight End over the middle. We tend to point out it's the players who are making the mistakes, but the Defensive Coordinator has to share some blame too. How Norton still has the DC job is a miracle. But, he's on a really short leash with John Pagano on the coaching staff. Even though this is preseason, I have not been impressed with the defense in Norton's 3rd year. Jared Goff managed to pick the first team apart. The 2nd and 3rd team giving up last minute touchdowns, even though it is the 2nd and 3rd string, is not a good harbinger of things to come. I've read some articles and discussion on Raider forums that there's some clash of defensive philosophies between Pagano and Norton. Apparently, when the defense was showing blitz during preseason, that was Pagano calling the shots and there are footage of Norton on the sidelines who didn't seem too happy about the fact that the Raiders were showing blitz. If Norton wants to ensure he has a future on this coaching staff, he has to show us that he's willing to tweak the system to fit the personnel he has on the field. He's not in Seattle anymore! Let this sink in: Jason Tarver did more on defense with less talent than Ken Norton did with better talent. And if the defense continues to have a poor outing under Norton's watch this season, we won't be surprised if John Pagano takes over the defense sooner rather than later this season.

Proving that Last Year was no Fluke/Schedule Breakdown

Last season, the Raiders went 12-4, their first winning season in ages. They had a favorable schedule that got them there and a lot of the close they had tilted in their favor. Because of that, some might argue that last season was a fluke season. This season's presents a much tougher challenge for this young Raiders squad than last season. At the same time, it is a barometer to measure if the Raiders are primed for a shot at the Super Bowl. The Mexico City game against the defending champion Patriots is a barometer game. Sunday Night game in December against the Cowboys is a barometer game. But, there's something else that's a must if the Raiders want to get to that Super Bowl hurdle, let alone win the AFC West: they have to prove that they can beat the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs pulled a stunner last night in Foxborough. Kareem Hunt filled in quite well for the injured Spencer Ware and Alex Smith is looking to sling the ball more in a contract year. If the Raiders got at least one game against the Chiefs last year, they would've gotten the AFC West. But since 2014, they've pretty much got Derek Carr and the Raiders' number. I do not see the Raiders pulling off a sweep against them, but it is imperative that they get the W on the Week 7 game in the Coliseum on Thursday Night. The Chiefs are the team that stands in the way between the Raiders and a Super Bowl trip, followed by the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys. It is also imperative, that the Raiders start fast in the first six weeks. The Titans (though they got a little better), the Jets, the Redskins, Broncos, Ravens, and Chargers are all beatable teams and the Raiders have to take advantage of that as the schedule gets tougher after those opponents.

Conclusion

As I said in my last headline, the Raiders are going to have to prove that last season is no fluke. They will be in a lot of games as long as the offense drives down the field and score. As long as Derek Carr is upright, the offense will do those two objectives. It comes down if the defense can hold its own since they'll be going up against more of the elite teams in the NFL. I don't see this team replicating the 12-4 season last year. But, they're still primed for a decent finish and a possible division title. I'd go along the lines of an 11-5 or 10-6 season and winning the AFC West. But, then again, the challenge is to get at least one game against the Chiefs and sweep the Chargers and Broncos to make that AFC West dream a reality. The big question is are the Raiders Super Bowl contenders? As long as the offense is playing at a high level and the defense is at the middle of the pack, then Super Bowl aspirations are not out of the question. I'm sure Raider Nation has come to a consensus that the defense is more to be concerned about than the offense. This should be a very interesting season. Go Raiders! #ReturntoGreatness

*Raiders-Titans Week 1, Open Thread and Full Recap Posts available at 10 AM West Coast Time*

2016 Oakland Raiders Preview - Playoff Bound?

Raider Nation it has been awhile. Now that I've enjoyed my little sabbatical off this blog, it's time to talk football again. Welcome in to the regular season preview post for the Oakland Raiders' 2016 regular season campaign. Like last year, I will divide some potential headlines into sections, discuss the schedule, and give my prediction. Keep in mind, this is opinionated and I'll provide my take on all of them.

AC/DC and the Offense Year 2

Last year, we saw glimpses of how good the Raiders' offense can be during the Baltimore, Cleveland, San Diego, New York, and Pittsburgh games. This offense was able to score at will as long as Bill Musgrave opens up the playbook and the offensive line remains in tact. This year, the Raiders added two more running backs in Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington to bolster the running back position since poor Tay Train (Latavius Murray) was getting all the work load. They bolstered the O-line even more by adding Kelechi Osemele from the Ravens and re-signing Donald Penn. With KO, Penn, Hudson, Jackson, and Watson, the O-line has the makings of being elite. Combined with the growth of Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Clive Walford, and others, this offense has great potential to explode. Most definitely, the growth of Amari Cooper and Derek Carr (AC/DC) will be crucial. They showed great promise last year and the tandem will continue to get better and hopefully they add more explosive plays to their arsenal. Probably the biggest concern is the running game. I was not impressed with the running game this preseason, particularly with the way Murray was struggling finding running lanes behind a stout O-line. Unless they're holding something back, then I could understand. Well, it's the preseason, you shouldn't show your cards, but I'd say if Murray performs like he did in the preseason, he could be sitting behind Washington or Richard when it's all said and done. On the plus side, Bill Musgrave will give Derek Carr a lot of freedom to change up plays on the line of scrimmage (whew). In the preseason, it was pretty encouraging to see Carr channel his inner-Peyton Manning and audible some plays and protection schemes. The sky is the limit for the offense and they can be more dangerous than they were last season.

Khalil Mack DPOY Candidate?

Khalil Mack is a beast, let's just leave it at that. No post necessary. Jokes aside, last season, we saw what Mack is able to do. He made a huge leap from 4 sacks in his rookie season to 15 sacks in his 2nd year en route to a Pro Bowl and 1st team honors as an outside linebacker and defensive end. The scary part is that he's still growing as a potent pass rusher. The talent on defense is there for Mack to terrorize QBs at will. The Raiders solidified the secondary by adding Sean Smith, Reggie Nelson, and Karl Joseph and they brought in Bruce Irvin to be Mack's partner-in-crime while Aldon Smith serves his lengthy suspension. Obviously, Mario Edwards' hip injury is deflating because he helps set Mack free by eating up blocks, but likely Denico Autry and Jihad Ward are going to fill in quite well. An upgraded secondary and a deep D-line should propel Mack to put up some Lawrence Taylor-esque sack numbers and possibly dethrone J.J. Watt in the Defensive Player of the Year running.

The "Mike" Hole

If you don't know "football-speak," "the Mike" is another name for the Middle Linebacker position in football. Reggie McKenzie and the Raiders are rolling the dice on Ben Heeney to be their long-term answer at Middle Linebacker and backing him up is a project in Cory James. If there's any position that is the most concerning heading into the 2016 season, it would most definitely be the Middle Linebacker position. Running back is arguable, but it's a deep position for the Raiders. I love Heeney's motor and his nose for the football, but his preseason play has us re-thinking whether or not he can be the guy to quarterback the defense. He struggled in coverage over the middle and he couldn't shed blocks when stopping the run (look at the preseason tape vs. Green Bay). This is a position of concern that we need to keep an eye on as this season progresses.


Viva Las Vegas?

We keep hearing about this all over the media: are the Raiders moving to Las Vegas? It is going to be a distraction with all this relocation talk and it could derail the Raiders from fully taking off this season.This team is poised to bring the franchise back from the ashes of futility and they can't let this relocation talk distract them. In fact, the team and the fans alike shouldn't worry about this, they need to focus on now. Let me say right now, these are the Oakland Raiders. They play in the city of Oakland. Until Las Vegas is set in stone, they'll remain the Oakland Raiders until further notice. Nothing more to be said. Rather than starting a civil war within the Raider Nation about this whole move or stay arguments, this season is the time to unite the Raider Nation and rally around this team that potentially has all the tools to break our 13 year drought of postseason Raiders football.

Schedule

The 2016 schedule is arguably the most favorable schedule the Raiders have had in years' past. They're playing the AFC South and the NFC South and both of them were pathetic last season. Yes, they have an unfavorable East Coast road schedule to start and they have to give up a home game to play in Mexico City. Those are going to be the major hurdles for the Raiders. However, the first half of the schedule before their bye week in week 10, probably 80% of those games are against beatable teams (Saints, Falcons, Titans, Ravens, Chargers, Jags, Bucs). It is essential that the Raiders take advantage of those matchups and get off to a good start, despite the road hurdles. In terms of division rivals, I'm going to be bold and say that the Raiders can sweep San Diego and split with Denver and Kansas City with each team winning in their respective home field.

Conclusion

OK, the Raiders added a couple of top-tier free agents, they had a solid 2016 draft with a full load of draft picks, the coaching staff remains in tact. I see the Raiders taking the last Wild Card spot in the AFC. I think that's a realistic prediction. The talent is there. The coaching staff is there. The schedule is favorable. As long as they put the work in, build chemistry, and execute game in and game out, the sky is the limit for this team. They need to be locked in and dominate for a full 60 minutes. No more going aggressive in the 1st half and being conservative in the 2nd half. Take no prisoners! This Sunday should be a statement game. They're on the road in New Orleans, the Big Easy, going up against Drew Brees, Sean Payton, and the ever hostile Superdome crowd. However, one name who the Saints have justifies that the opening game is a "must win" game for the Raiders: Dennis Allen. "Um, uh, you know at the end of the day uh..." The Raiders offense must show up big time and blitzkrieg the heck out of the Saints defense to make DA look like a fool! We've been waiting too long for playoff football. It's time for this young team to make the Oakland Raiders great again. Go Raiders! #ReturntoGreatness


*Announcement to be made before Sunday regarding changes in game day posts*