Raiders football is coming. Welcome, Raider Nation to the regular season preview post for the Raiders' 2017 campaign provided by yours' truly. As usual, I provide some storylines to look out for, the schedule breakdown, and give my overall thoughts on how the season will go.
2017 Raiders Offense - "The Greatest Show on Dirt"?
Unequivocally, this will be the strongest unit and the identity of this team. Last year, before Derek Carr got hurt, the offense proved that they can drive down the field and score regardless of what situation the Raiders were in, whether they leading or trailing. Most of the comeback wins last year, the offense orchestrated them, especially behind Derek Carr's arm. Before the injury, Carr was on pace for a 4,000+ yards passing and another 30+ passing TDs season. With the additions of Jared Cook, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Marshawn Lynch this offseason, this unit just got a lot stronger. The offense should easily be top 10 because they have 95% of the total package in making a very potent offense. What do the Raiders have currently before the additions? They have the 2nd best O-line in football. Donald Penn, Kelechi Osemele, and Rodney Hudson all the made the Pro Bowl. Gabe Jackson is seriously underrated and worth the $65 million contract extension he signed prior to training camp. They have two 1,000-yards receiving Wideouts in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree; the first tandem to accomplish a feat since Tim Brown and Jerry Rice. Now, the Raiders have a mismatch Tight End in Cook. Patterson is a deadly Kick Returner, but he has deep threat potential, which should benefit Cooper big time and allow him to be a movable "chess piece" and a matchup nightmare. And, they brought Beast Mode out of retirement. Despite the age concerns, Marshawn Lynch is an automatic upgrade over Latavius Murray. We saw in preseason that he could still find the holes and take on defenders after contact. Speaking of preseason, the first string offense has shown that they can drive down the field and be a scoring threat at will. Derek Carr looked like he hasn't missed a beat and even though it's preseason, Todd Downing is already a better play-caller than Bill Musgrave. Why? Because Downing is better utilizing the Tight Ends. I don't know if Musgrave had a grudge against Tight Ends. On every passing down, it is 3-Wide, pass to either Coop, Crab, or Seth and if they're covered well check down to Murray or Olawale. That's what made the offense semi-predictable. But, with the personnel they have now combined with Downing's ability to shake things up in the playbook and Carr having free reins to change plays, this offense should keep opposing defenses on its heels and keep them guessing. I liked the offense based on what I saw from the first string offense this preseason. This unit should have no problem obliterating opposing defenses.
Norton's Last Chance
The performance of the Raider defense since Ken Norton, Jr. was hired back in the 2015 offseason has been met with mixed to negative reception. In 2015, KNJ got a pass, given it was his first season calling plays and the defense stepped up down the stretch. Last year, the defense was supposed to be top notch with the additions of Bruce Irvin, Sean Smith, and Reggie Nelson. We were wrong. This defense got worse than expected, surrendering record-breaking yards and points last season. The only redeeming qualities they had was that they were 2nd in takeaways last season and Khalil Mack won Defensive Player of the Year. After last season's underwhelming performance by the defense, we expected Ken Norton, Jr. to be fired. There's a lot of evidence stacked against him: he's too overcommitted to replicate the Seahawks defense (Raiders do not have a fast, powerful D-Line, linebackers with insane close out speed, nor the Legion of Boom). He's forcing the Raider corners who are more suited to man to play zone. He's putting players in the wrong position (you're asking for a death wish if you put Sean Smith up against Brandin Cooks with no Safety help). He's not moving Mack around like a chess piece to exploit mismatches at the LOS. He does not blitz. And the one that really grinds our gears, his playcalling on 3rd and long situations do not account for the Tight End over the middle. We tend to point out it's the players who are making the mistakes, but the Defensive Coordinator has to share some blame too. How Norton still has the DC job is a miracle. But, he's on a really short leash with John Pagano on the coaching staff. Even though this is preseason, I have not been impressed with the defense in Norton's 3rd year. Jared Goff managed to pick the first team apart. The 2nd and 3rd team giving up last minute touchdowns, even though it is the 2nd and 3rd string, is not a good harbinger of things to come. I've read some articles and discussion on Raider forums that there's some clash of defensive philosophies between Pagano and Norton. Apparently, when the defense was showing blitz during preseason, that was Pagano calling the shots and there are footage of Norton on the sidelines who didn't seem too happy about the fact that the Raiders were showing blitz. If Norton wants to ensure he has a future on this coaching staff, he has to show us that he's willing to tweak the system to fit the personnel he has on the field. He's not in Seattle anymore! Let this sink in: Jason Tarver did more on defense with less talent than Ken Norton did with better talent. And if the defense continues to have a poor outing under Norton's watch this season, we won't be surprised if John Pagano takes over the defense sooner rather than later this season.
Proving that Last Year was no Fluke/Schedule Breakdown
Last season, the Raiders went 12-4, their first winning season in ages. They had a favorable schedule that got them there and a lot of the close they had tilted in their favor. Because of that, some might argue that last season was a fluke season. This season's presents a much tougher challenge for this young Raiders squad than last season. At the same time, it is a barometer to measure if the Raiders are primed for a shot at the Super Bowl. The Mexico City game against the defending champion Patriots is a barometer game. Sunday Night game in December against the Cowboys is a barometer game. But, there's something else that's a must if the Raiders want to get to that Super Bowl hurdle, let alone win the AFC West: they have to prove that they can beat the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs pulled a stunner last night in Foxborough. Kareem Hunt filled in quite well for the injured Spencer Ware and Alex Smith is looking to sling the ball more in a contract year. If the Raiders got at least one game against the Chiefs last year, they would've gotten the AFC West. But since 2014, they've pretty much got Derek Carr and the Raiders' number. I do not see the Raiders pulling off a sweep against them, but it is imperative that they get the W on the Week 7 game in the Coliseum on Thursday Night. The Chiefs are the team that stands in the way between the Raiders and a Super Bowl trip, followed by the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys. It is also imperative, that the Raiders start fast in the first six weeks. The Titans (though they got a little better), the Jets, the Redskins, Broncos, Ravens, and Chargers are all beatable teams and the Raiders have to take advantage of that as the schedule gets tougher after those opponents.
Conclusion
As I said in my last headline, the Raiders are going to have to prove that last season is no fluke. They will be in a lot of games as long as the offense drives down the field and score. As long as Derek Carr is upright, the offense will do those two objectives. It comes down if the defense can hold its own since they'll be going up against more of the elite teams in the NFL. I don't see this team replicating the 12-4 season last year. But, they're still primed for a decent finish and a possible division title. I'd go along the lines of an 11-5 or 10-6 season and winning the AFC West. But, then again, the challenge is to get at least one game against the Chiefs and sweep the Chargers and Broncos to make that AFC West dream a reality. The big question is are the Raiders Super Bowl contenders? As long as the offense is playing at a high level and the defense is at the middle of the pack, then Super Bowl aspirations are not out of the question. I'm sure Raider Nation has come to a consensus that the defense is more to be concerned about than the offense. This should be a very interesting season. Go Raiders! #ReturntoGreatness
*Raiders-Titans Week 1, Open Thread and Full Recap Posts available at 10 AM West Coast Time*
No comments:
Post a Comment