Welcome in the regular season preview for the 2018 Oakland Raiders. We're removed from one of the biggest letdowns this offseason. But, it's done with. They gotta find ways to carry on. For newbies, I headline some storylines, break down the roster, break down the schedule, and provide some overall thoughts on how the Raiders will fare for the upcoming season.
The Defense - Life After Mack
The marquee storyline coming right out of the gate. The Raiders may have a revamped defense under a proven DC in Paul Guenther, but they'll have to perform with Khalil Mack no longer on the team. That trade still hurts no matter how you look at it. At the end of the day, it's a business. The Raiders didn't have the cap room. It's a Quarterback-driven league. To be truthfully honest, none of the defensive players on the team have half the talent and HOF-potential like Mack had. Let's break down the defensive unit without Mack. They still have Bruce Irvin. Bruce is still a good pass rusher, but he's not one who can affect a game plan. And he's not as effective as an EDGE run defender. They have a trio or rookies in P.J. Hall, Maurice Hurst, and Arden Key. All three rookies showed out in the preseason as pass rushers. I do like Hurst and Key in the draft, but it remains to be seen how they translate in the regular season. The entire unit is shaky at best after the Mack trade. The D-line is boom-or-bust. Linebackers should be a little improved, but not by much. The secondary still has a lot of question marks. Can Gareon Conley stay healthy? Will Rashaan Melvin replicate his breakout year last year when he was still with the Colts? Is Karl Joseph ready to take the next step to lead the secondary? At least if Khalil Mack was still around, the defense had a given. But now that he's not around, there are all kinds of wildcards surrounding this unit. So far, Paul Guenther has done a decent job in tailoring the scheme to the personnel (take notes Ken Norton Jr.). It definitely translated this presesason. They still gave up some yardage, but they held opponents to under 20+ points in all four preaseason games. Again, we gotta see that in the regular season and this defensive with a lot of unknowns have their work cut out for them against first-tier starters full-time.
Transition of Chucky
The last time Jon Gruden coached an NFL game, I was only a freshman in High School, smart phones were not trendy, mainstream music wasn't as crappy, and MySpace was more popular than Facebook. Man, I feel old talking about those. But, that's the truth about the return of Chucky. He's been out of coaching in the past decade and the game has changed drastically (seriously, $100 million for 10 years for a guy who hasn't coached in 10 years). He did admit the game's evolution in his press conference. And credit where credit is due, he established a coaching staff that's accustomed to the modern NFL to help him catch up and get up to speed. There's no question that Raider Nation should be excited that the prophecy of Gruden's return has been fulfilled. Though, that stock may have plummeted because of the rumors surrounding him that he had a hand in the Khalil Mack trade and a possible power friction between he and Reggie McKenzie. If we look back at Tampa Bay, his track record hasn't been good since he won Super Bowl XXXVII (because he knew half of Oakland's playbook and Tony Dungy built that defense). Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure is that the NFL just became interesting with "Spider 2-Y Banana" back in the playbook. He's a good offensive mind and should help the Raider offense rekindle 2016 and elevate them to become better.
Keep the Carr Upright
Speaking of the Raiders' offensive unit returning to 2016 form, this is going to be the key here. The offense will run as long as Derek Carr's on the field. Two years ago, Carr was having an MVP year before the fractured fibula happened Week 16 against the Colts. Last year was a pretty funky year for Derek Carr as he battled an injured back all season long and the numbers just weren't good. The back injury was one thing. Todd Downing's predictable play calling was another reason why Carr had a regression last season. He's projected to have a bounceback season under Gruden, but he has to stay upright. Carr staying upright is contingent on the play of the offensive line. And quite frankly, I'm worried about both Tackles position. Kolton Miller will have some growing pains as a rookie being Carr's "Blindside." Donald Penn is still recovering from foot surgery and hasn't looked great playing Right Tack. If Carr goes down, the Raiders are gonna have to depend on A.J. McCarron as he needs ample time to learn Jon Gruden's playbook. Let's hope it doesn't come down to that scenario.
"Over the Hill" Gang
One thing about Gruden is that he loves aging vets in hopes that they still have something left in the tank. The Raiders brought in Doug Martin, Jordy Nelson, and Derrick Johnson. They brought back Reggie Nelson because he knows the Guenther's system playing under him in Cincinnati. Leon Hall vice versa. They signed Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at the last seconds of the preseason. Of course, Marshawn Lynch is the primary bell cow. Similarly, the Raiders did the "Over the Hill" approach in 2014 signing aging vets like Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, James Jones, Maurice Jones-Drew, we all know how that worked out.
Schedule Breakdown
The one thing that'll benefit the Raiders is that the AFC West is not that good. Kansas City has some unknowns transitioning from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes. The Broncos have a good defense, but the quarterback position is still suspect. The Chargers are the only legitimate threat in the division. Philip Rivers is still arguably the best quarterback in the division. Monday Night against an elite team like the Los Angeles Rams will be a gauge meter to see how far this team will go. And the Rams have a full squad with "Million Dollar Man" Aaron Donald coming back. Something the Raiders didn't do with Khalil Mack. But again, it is what it is. This team has their work cut out for the first 6 games of the season. They're going to sustain a lot of mileage early with the travel since the Week 6 home matchup against Seattle is in London. After the Week 7 bye, the Raiders have a plethora of home games that they should take advantage of. Again, Week 1, Monday Night against the Rams is going to say a lot about this team.
Conclusion
Slap me in the face if I'm being too pessimistic. With the Mack trade, this season is pretty much a wash. There'll be no Super Bowl in Oakland before they leave. They're clearly rebuilding for Vegas. Oakland is filing suit to have the Raiders leave town early, so we don't know where they're going to play next year. I really don't see this team contending for a division, let alone a wild card berth. There's just too many unknowns on this roster. Realistically, this team is built to finish 7-9 at best. 6-10 at worst. If they want to go beyond that, Derek Carr has to stay healthy, Amari Cooper has to play like a #1 Wideout, the offensive line play has to be better, the veterans on this team have to pan out, and the rookies have to reach their ceiling now than later. The Raiders are exactly molding themselves for Las Vegas. They're making some gambles and hoping the chips fall in their favor. Still as always, go Raiders. Just not expecting much to happen during this season. (Yet, I'm still making a hype video before Monday Night).
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