Super Bowl 51 is just a few days away. You know what that means. Welcome in to yet another Super Bowl preview provided by yours truly on this blog. This year's matchup should be a good one as the AFC Champion, New England Patriots take on the NFC Champion, Atlanta Falcons. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick look to cement their legacy as one of the greatest QB-Head Coach duo in NFL history, bringing the Patriots to a fifth Super Bowl title. The Falcons have not been to the Super Bowl since 1999 when they took on the Denver Broncos in John Elway's farewell season. They'll look to win their first title behind Matt Ryan, the projected league MVP and Julio Jones, arguably the best receiver in the league. Like my previous posts in doing these previews, I give a little background to how they got to the Super Bowl, referring to their rosters and statistics, keys for both teams, and finally, I make my score prediction on who wins. Let's roll!
New England Patriots
These guys just keep winning. For over a decade, the Patriots associated themselves with two names, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The resume speaks for itself since their arrival in New England: 7 Super Bowl appearances, 4 Super Bowl titles, an undefeated season in 2008, multiple AFC East titles. With Belichick on the sidelines and Brady commanding the Patriot offense, the Pats are almost a lock to make it to the Super Bowl and go all the way every year. However, things were a little different this season to start. Tom Brady did not start the first four games because if in case you guys weren't following, Roger Goodell laid down the hammer and suspended Brady for the first four games because of "Deflategate." That should minimize the Patriots' championship aspirations right? But the Patriots continued to live by Bill Belichick's mantra of "Do Your Job." The Patriots started the season winning 3 out of 4 games during Brady's suspension. Jimmy Garoppolo? Jacoby Brissett? Who are they? Obviously, they're Brady's backups, but nobody expected the Pats to start the season 3-1 behind those quarterbacks. Well, Garoppolo learned the Patriots' system for two years now, so that's understandable. But overall, the first four games of the 2016 season without Tom Brady exemplified the Patriots notion of "next man up." It was a testament to the methodical preparation and coaching of Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, Matt Patricia, and others.
Since Brady came back in Week 5, the Patriots were almost in "God Mode." They loss to the Seahawks in Week 10 when Brady returned. Still, they were unstoppable going 14-2, ensuring that the Super Bowl went through them in the AFC. But, they did lose some key assets to their roster. Rob Gronkowski was placed on season ending I.R. (Injured Reserve) and in a surprising move, they traded away Jamie Collins, a key defensive player, to the Cleveland Browns. That wasn't the first time they traded a key defensive player away as they traded away Chandler Jones, their best defensive player, to the Arizona Cardinals during the offseason. Despite all that, their defense remained a solid unit. Offensively, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell have stepped up to be Brady's go-to-receivers, taking pressure off of Julian Edelman. Martellus Bennett has held down the Tight End position admirably since Gronk went down. LeGarrette Blount resurrected his career and the Patriot running game, rushing for 1,161 yards and 18 TDs. Also, the mid-season return of Dion Lewis adds to the Patriots' arsenal on offense. The Patriots did get a tough test against the Texans in the divisional round because of their top defense (look what they did to my Raiders in the Wild Card round), but Brock Osweiler threw 3 INTs and Dion Lewis went off for a rushing TD and a kickoff return TD for 98 yards. In the AFC Championship, they had an easier time, cruising past the Steelers and their trio of Big Ben, Bell, and AB. The Patriots have had a historically good rapport against the Steelers in AFC Championship games with Brady and Belichick.
Atlanta Falcons
Somebody call the fire department because the Falcons' offense is on fire! Matt Ryan has put together a spectacular season, throwing for 4,000+ yards with 38 touchdowns and 7 interceptions during the 2016 season. There's no question that Matty Ice deserves the League MVP this season. Obviously, he has Julio Jones to throw to, but the front office of the Falcons did a nice job acquiring more weapons to add to Ryan's arsenal. They acquired Mohamed Sanu from the Cincinnati Bengals, who was a solid complementary receiver to A.J. Green. Rookie, Austin Hooper emerged as a go-to Tight End for the Falcons, something they haven't had since Tony Gonzalez retired in 2013. Perhaps none bigger is the acquisition of Pro Bowl Center, Alex Mack, from the Cleveland Browns. The acquisition of Alex Mack helped bolster the left side of the Falcons' O-line, a unit that already consist of solid players like Jake Matthews and Andy Levitre. On the defensive side, Vic Beasley had a "Khalil Mack-lite" jump in his 2nd year in the NFL as a pass rusher, recording 15.5 sacks after registering 4 sacks in his rookie season last year.
Not a lot of people expected the Falcons to make it to the Super Bowl. Teams like Green Bay, Seattle, and Dallas were ahead of them as the likeliest NFC teams to make it to the big game. Rightfully so, a majority of the Falcons' losses were really obscure. They loss to the Chargers because of a failed 4th down call. They loss to the Chiefs when Eric Berry returned Ryan's pass off a 2-point attempt. They get manhandled in Philadelphia against a rebuilding Eagles squad. It's like, how could a team like them make the Super Bowl? On the more impressive side, I think the wins in Week 4 and Week 5 against the two previous Super Bowl teams in the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos was the coming of age on how good this team is. In the Panthers game, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were the first quarterback-wide receiver tandem in the Super Bowl era to go for 500+ passing yards and 300+ receiving yards. The next week, they stunned the NFL world winning against the Broncos and their dominant defense in Denver. They gave other teams the blueprint on how to beat the Broncos' defense. That is you run the ball against them and for a little extra, you have an explosive pass catcher out of the backfield (Tevin Coleman caught 4 passes for 132 yards and a score that game). They put the Seahawks on the ropes in Seattle in Week 6! That is until Matt Ryan threw a costly INT to Richard Sherman. But, Matty Ice redeemed himself a few weeks later when he lead the Falcons to a comeback win over Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. In the postseason, the Falcons were playing lights out, putting the clamps on the same Seahawks and Packers teams en route to their 2nd Super Bowl berth since 1998-99. Those two victories definitely opened everybody's eyes and realize this Falcons team was legit. The Raiders did lose to the same team in Week 2 and I along with the rest of the Raider Nation can breathe a sigh of relief that our Silver and Black lost to the eventual NFC champions.
Keys for the Patriots
Obviously, shadowing Julio Jones is the top priority for the Patriots. Super Bowl XLIX hero, Malcolm Butler has a daunting task of covering arguably, the best receiver. But he should be good hands if either Devin McCourty or Patrick Chung provide Safety help over the top. The Falcons have struggled running the ball throughout the postseason as evident in both games against the Seahawks and the Packers. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman could not get anything going. The Patriots have held running backs under 100 yards rushing in this postseason run. The defensive front should have a field day to stifle any running plays the Falcons call. However, Freeman and Coleman are really good pass catchers, so the Pats are going to need their linebackers to cover a lot of ground when the Falcons run screen passes or check downs with either Freeman or Coleman. Lastly, the defense need to pressure Matt Ryan just enough for their defensive playmakers in the secondary to generate turnovers. They're not a unit that will out-muscle the other on the line of scrimmage, which is why they don't have a lot of sacks from their front seven. However, they'll pressure with exotic blitzes and sub-packages. Offensively, it is essential that the Patriots get their running game going early. LeGarrette Blount should pose as a more physical matchup that the Falcons' run defense have faced this postseason. Dion Lewis and Chris Hogan are going to be X-factors. Lewis provides that change-of-pace back for the Pats and he is very dangerous in open space. Hogan has been playing well this postseason and he's going to need the hot hand since the Falcons are likely going to zone in for Edelman and Bennett.
Keys for the Falcons
Based on observing the Falcons' postseason play, Matt Ryan and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan have done a masterful job in spreading the around to several different receivers in order to beat both the Seahawks and the Packers. Back then, the offense just revolved around heaving the ball to Julio Jones and hope he can make a play. Now, the Falcons have a ton of weapons to take pressure off of their elite receiver. Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Justin Hardy, Taylor Gabriel, Austin Hooper, Levine Toilolo, Patrick DiMarco, Aldrick Robinson, the list is just endless for names that Matt Ryan can deliver the ball to. If anything, Matt Ryan himself is a weapon as he proved in this postseason that he can still scramble out of the pocket and make plays with his legs. They have a solid O-line that could Ryan some adequate time to let plays develop and that is possible considering that the Patriots don't have an elite, game-wrecking D-line. This is probably the most dangerous offensive unit that the Patriots have faced all season long. As mentioned, the Patriots will give Ryan some exotic looks, but Julio Jones' presence could give Atlanta's aforementioned receivers time to shine if they are up for the challenge. Element of surprise should be the emphasis of Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense. Defensively, the Falcons are solid, but they are missing some key guys. Their best corner, Desmond Trufant is loss for the season, so that could spell problems for their secondary when game planning against Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, and others. If I'm Dan Quinn, I'd give Steve Spagnuolo a call. Because the key to containing this Patriot offense is if the Falcons' defensive front pressures the living hell out of Tom Brady. Move Vic Beasley around and turn him loose for that to happen.
Prediction
I'm going to be a part of the consensus that this Super Bowl has the makings of a shootout. You have two great quarterbacks playing at the highest level. For the 2nd straight year, we'll see an MVP quarterback going up against an all-time great quarterback. I think this matchup will come down to two things: 1) which team makes the fewest mistakes and 2) which quarterback will have the ball in his hands as the clock ticks down in the 4th quarter. The Falcons are likely at risk to have jitters to start because most of their players have not been to the Super Bowl. In contrast to the Patriots, they've tasted the Super Bowl and won not so long ago in Super Bowl XLIX and a majority of their roster from that season remains in tact. I think as the game rolls on, the Falcons will overcome their jitters and mount an offensive rally behind Matt Ryan. But, the Patriots are the more experienced and more disciplined football team. It's hard to pick against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. In all likelihood, the Patriots will get the last possession and Tom Brady will once again live up to the "Tom Terrific" nickname, orchestrating yet another a game-winning drive en route to a fifth Lombardi.
NE 34 ATL 31
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